129764786850937500_187China's foreign trade situation is very grim, predicts China's macroeconomic policy is "fine" of necessity, but how to grasp the macro policy fine-tuning of the "degree" is critical, it is necessary to avoid economic fluctuations, to avoid reverse stimulate irrational investment in real estate. Author Le Jiachun author Department of economics right now, China is facing is to intensify macroeconomic policy"Fine-tuning" of greater pressure, this new pressure mainly from domestic and foreign interests imposed by the forces of demand, demand expect China to relax as much as possible is the core of macroeconomic policy
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How the problem is China's macro-control policies should "fine", and how policy consequences, it requires us to predict. From the historyView, changes in external demand is to observe major changes in China's macroeconomic policy is one of the important bases. In November 2008, the national import and export value fell to 9%, which drops 2.2% in exports and imports fell by 17.9%; December national import and export value fell 11.1%, drops 2.8% in exports and imports fell by 21.3%�� This suggests that the international financial crisis on China's foreign trade has had a substantial impact, can expect China pose a major economic impact on the export-oriented economy.
It was introduced late 2008 4 trillion economic stimulus package's main background. Today, the Chinese themselves in a similar predicament. According to the latest statistics, under the influence of seasonal factors, the 2012-In February, exports and imports growth wave is repeated, but the February trade deficit of US $ 31.49 billion, can confirm that China's foreign trade situation is severe, difficult to avoid slowing economic growth.
This is exactly what the market expects China will step up macro-policy "fine-tuning" of one of the main reasons. In fact, macro-policy loose in order to keep China's economyFast and stable growth, but from the effects of China's current economic growth three requirements, investment requirements, remain the most important path of sustaining economic growth, but it can also cause excess, result is part of the industry's overcapacity still need to expand exports to continue, and indicated that China's economy will be difficult to get out of the investment and export-led development of traditionalPattern. However, the current inflationary pressures have not seen substantial mitigation. Despite the February CPI rose to 3.2% this year, but inflationary pressure effect of domestic factors have not gone. In addition, geopolitical tension caused international oil prices continued to rise, Europe's Central Bank easing monetary policy and risk factors such as the return of domestic monetary policy-neutral effect is expected this year-passHeaving pressure should not be overlooked.
In this context, mainly by stimulating the investment needs to keep steady and rapid economic growth in China, will also face some foreseeable problems. First of all, stimulating the growth of investment demand, easy to some overcapacity in the industry, leading to falling profitability in micro-enterprises. The other hand, investment demand will inevitably need to free flow, At the cost of inflation pressure, indicating that inflationary pressures will not be significantly reduced in the future.
Factors such as overcapacity and profitability fell under the influence of capital in name to the real economy, actually is "stealing" and grew out of the real economy, culminated in the liquidity shortage in the real economy. Secondly, it is due to excessRate of return on investments in the real economy caused by too low, accelerated the liquidity in the market to go from the real economy, virtual economy, the real economy, "hollow" in Wenzhou and other economically developed regions have already appeared. Since 2008, liquidity flowing out of the real economy, investment real estate, works of art and other fields. It can be said that this is causing House prices since 2008Rose too quickly one of the root causes, other investments (stock market is a strange exception) is true of foam, thus forming a typical of irrational exuberance. Past experience has confirmed that even though we have repeatedly stressed that support for the real economy development, but if the macro policy of "fine-tuning" easily lead to excessive demand of the real economy and overcapacity caused decline in the profitability ofWill also cause the release of macroeconomic policy to relax the liquidity, bypass the real economy again, flow to the irrational investment in areas such as real estate, which is particularly needed us to be vigilant. At present, expect macro-policies of local governments is loose, and foreign investors also want China to adjust policy to stimulate investment in economic growth, despite the current China's situation is very grim in external demand, butStill needs thinking on macro policy for "fine-tuning" of "of" of problem, cannot simple to repeat or followed past of mode, because stimulus investment needs special easy caused short-term economic of larger fluctuations, then will led to economic of overheating, inflation pressure also will with of appears, results is macro policy "fine-tuning" of results, and no makes China economic keep smooth more fast growth, anti-Arising from macroeconomic fluctuations.
����In view of this, despite China's macroeconomic policy is "fine" of necessity, but we need to avoid this kind of problem--along with the macro policy of gradually loosening, it is easy to raise real estate, irrational investment further eruptions of pent-up, results will force the economy "hard landing" risk. Gold onlineOut: Gold-line reproduced above, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
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